Study Region: Goslar and G\"ottingen, Lower Saxony, Germany. Study Focus: In July 2017, the cities of Goslar and G\"ottingen experienced severe flood events characterized by short warning time of only 20 minutes, resulting in extensive regional flooding and significant damage. This highlights the critical need for a more reliable and timely flood forecasting system. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the impact of radar-based precipitation data on forecasting river water levels in Goslar. Additionally, the study examines how precipitation influences water level forecasts in G\"ottingen. The analysis integrates radar-derived spatiotemporal precipitation patterns with hydrological sensor data obtained from ground stations to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach in improving flood prediction capabilities. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: A key innovation in this paper is the use of residual-based modeling to address the non-linearity between precipitation images and water levels, leading to a Spatiotemporal Radar-based Precipitation Model with residuals (STRPMr). Unlike traditional hydrological models, our approach does not rely on upstream data, making it independent of additional hydrological inputs. This independence enhances its adaptability and allows for broader applicability in other regions with RADOLAN precipitation. The deep learning architecture integrates (2+1)D convolutional neural networks for spatial and temporal feature extraction with LSTM for timeseries forecasting. The results demonstrate the potential of the STRPMr for capturing extreme events and more accurate flood forecasting.

Accurate flood prediction is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. Hydrological data exhibit highly nonlinear temporal patterns and encompass complex spatial relationships between rainfall and flow. Existing flood prediction models struggle to capture these intricate temporal features and spatial dependencies. This paper presents an adaptive periodic and spatial self-attention method based on LSTM (APS-LSTM) to address these challenges. The APS-LSTM learns temporal features from a multi-periodicity perspective and captures diverse spatial dependencies from different period divisions. The APS-LSTM consists of three main stages, (i) Multi-Period Division, that utilizes Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to divide various periodic patterns; (ii) Spatio-Temporal Information Extraction, that performs periodic and spatial self-attention focusing on intra- and inter-periodic temporal patterns and spatial dependencies; (iii) Adaptive Aggregation, that relies on amplitude strength to aggregate the computational results from each periodic division. The abundant experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of APS-LSTM. The code is available: https://github.com/oopcmd/APS-LSTM.

Accurate short-term streamflow and flood forecasting are critical for mitigating river flood impacts, especially given the increasing climate variability. Machine learning-based streamflow forecasting relies on large streamflow datasets derived from rating curves. Uncertainties in rating curve modeling could introduce errors to the streamflow data and affect the forecasting accuracy. This study proposes a streamflow forecasting method that addresses these data errors, enhancing the accuracy of river flood forecasting and flood modeling, thereby reducing flood-related risk. A convolutional recurrent neural network is used to capture spatiotemporal patterns, coupled with residual error learning and forecasting. The neural network outperforms commonly used forecasting models over 1-6 hours of forecasting horizons, and the residual error learners can further correct the residual errors. This provides a more reliable tool for river flood forecasting and climate adaptation in this critical 1-6 hour time window for flood risk mitigation efforts.

Cloth-changing person re-identification (CC-ReID) poses a significant challenge in computer vision. A prevailing approach is to prompt models to concentrate on causal attributes, like facial features and hairstyles, rather than confounding elements such as clothing appearance. Traditional methods to achieve this involve integrating multi-modality data or employing manually annotated clothing labels, which tend to complicate the model and require extensive human effort. In our study, we demonstrate that simply reducing feature correlations during training can significantly enhance the baseline model's performance. We theoretically elucidate this effect and introduce a novel regularization technique based on density ratio estimation. This technique aims to minimize feature correlation in the training process of cloth-changing ReID baselines. Our approach is model-independent, offering broad enhancements without needing additional data or labels. We validate our method through comprehensive experiments on prevalent CC-ReID datasets, showing its effectiveness in improving baseline models' generalization capabilities.

Floods can be very destructive causing heavy damage to life, property, and livelihoods. Global climate change and the consequent sea-level rise have increased the occurrence of extreme weather events, resulting in elevated and frequent flood risk. Therefore, accurate and timely flood forecasting in coastal river systems is critical to facilitate good flood management. However, the computational tools currently used are either slow or inaccurate. In this paper, we propose a Flood prediction tool using Graph Transformer Network (FloodGTN) for river systems. More specifically, FloodGTN learns the spatio-temporal dependencies of water levels at different monitoring stations using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and an LSTM. It is currently implemented to consider external covariates such as rainfall, tide, and the settings of hydraulic structures (e.g., outflows of dams, gates, pumps, etc.) along the river. We use a Transformer to learn the attention given to external covariates in computing water levels. We apply the FloodGTN tool to data from the South Florida Water Management District, which manages a coastal area prone to frequent storms and hurricanes. Experimental results show that FloodGTN outperforms the physics-based model (HEC-RAS) by achieving higher accuracy with 70% improvement while speeding up run times by at least 500x.

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduction the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods contributed highly in the advancement of prediction systems providing better performance and cost-effective solutions. Due to the vast benefits and potential of ML, its popularity dramatically increased among hydrologists. Researchers through introducing novel ML methods and hybridizing of the existing ones aim at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and to give insight into the most suitable models. In this paper, the literature where ML models were benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed are particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview on the various ML algorithms used in the field. The performance comparison of ML models presents an in-depth understanding of the different techniques within the framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As a result, this paper introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization are reported as the most effective strategies for the improvement of ML methods.

Abstract--Predicting flood for any location at times of extreme storms is a longstanding problem that has utmost importance in emergency management. Conventional methods that aim to predict water levels in streams use advanced hydrological models still lack of giving accurate forecasts everywhere. This study aims to explore artificial deep neural networks' performance on flood prediction. While providing models that can be used in forecasting stream stage, this paper presents a dataset that focuses on the connectivity of data points on river networks. It also shows that neural networks can be very helpful in time-series forecasting as in flood events, and support improving existing models through data assimilation. Hurricanes Harvey [1], Irma [2] and Maria, and other natural disasters caused more than $306 billion.

Floods are among the most common -- and deadly -- natural disasters in the world. Every year, they're responsible for tens of thousands of fatalities and hundreds of millions of displaced homeowners. And they're extraordinarily costly -- in the U.S. alone from 2005 to 2014, the average flood claim was $42,000, and total flood insurance claims averaged more than $3.5 billion per year. Accurate flood forecasting is a desirable goal, needless to say; according to some studies, early warning systems can reduce deaths and economic damages by over a third. Fortunately, it's one scientists continue to inch toward with the help of artificial intelligence (AI). In a new paper ("ML for Flood Forecasting at Scale") published on the preprint server Arxiv.org,

Effective riverine flood forecasting at scale is hindered by a multitude of factors, most notably the need to rely on human calibration in current methodology, the limited amount of data for a specific location, and the computational difficulty of building continent/global level models that are sufficiently accurate. Machine learning (ML) is primed to be useful in this scenario: learned models often surpass human experts in complex high-dimensional scenarios, and the framework of transfer or multitask learning is an appealing solution for leveraging local signals to achieve improved global performance. We propose to build on these strengths and develop ML systems for timely and accurate riverine flood prediction. Floods are the most common and deadly natural disaster in the world. Every year, floods cause from thousands to tens of thousands of fatalities [1, 22, 2, 21, 14], affect hundreds of millions of people [14, 21, 2], and cause tens of billions of dollars worth of damages [1, 2]. These numbers have only been increasing in recent decades [23]. Indeed, the UN charter notes floods to be one of the key motivators for formulating the sustainable development goals (SDGs), and directly challenges us: "They knew that earthquakes and floods were inevitable, but that the high death tolls were not."

Physically-based overland flow models are computationally demanding, hindering their use for real-time applications. Therefore, the development of fast (and reasonably accurate) overland flow models is needed if they are to be used to support flood mitigation decision making. In this study, we investigate the potential of Self-Organizing Maps to rapidly generate water depth and flood extent results. To conduct the study, we developed a flood-simulation specific SOM, using cellular automata flood model results and a synthetic DEM and inflow hydrograph. The preliminary results showed that water depth and flood extent results produced by the SOM are reasonably accurate and obtained in a very short period of time. Based on this, it seems that SOMs have the potential to provide critical flood information to support real-time flood mitigation decisions. The findings presented would however require further investigations to obtain general conclusions; these further investigations may include the consideration of real terrain representations, real water supply networks and realistic inflows from pipe bursts.